Monday, August 17, 2015


With Pakatan Rakyat dead, PAS split into two, Umno facing a serious internal conflict, and PKR neither here nor there, DAP can now make its move to add Selangor as the second state after Penang that it owns.

As what the DAP supporters have reminded us again and again over the last couple of years, DAP has managed to garner 85% to 90% of the Chinese support nationwide with MCA, MIC, Gerakan and PPP gasping for their lives. Another thing to note is that DAP seems to win every seat it contests and this impressive track record is not expected to change come the next general election.

Selangor has 56 state seats, half of which can be considered Chinese-majority seats. Hence DAP has the potential to win at least 28 of those seats. Therefore, if DAP were to contest 25 state seats in Selangor it can most likely win all of them.

The balance 31 seats can be given to PKR and GHB to share. Being new and yet untested, GHB can be given 11 seats to try out and PKR the balance 20.

However, while DAP can sweep the 25 seats it is contesting and decimate MCA and MIC in the process (with Gerakan and PPP probably not going to even waste their time contesting in Selangor just to get massacred), PKR and GHB would have to face PAS and Umno.

Therefore, for DAP it would be a no-contest in their 25 seats while in the 31 seats it would be four parties fighting for last place — PAS, Umno, PKR and GHB (there may even be a fifth party in that race but that is still being discussed).

It is expected that there is no way for PAS, Umno, PKR and GHB to win more than ten seats per party. I mean you cannot divide 31 by four and get more than ten per party. PKR and Umno might win ten seats each leaving the balance 11 for PAS and GHB to share.

With 25 seats versus ten or less for the other four parties, DAP would now become the head honcho in Selangor. Even now, with only 15 seats, it is already the de facto head honcho and calls the shots and decides what PAS and PKR can and cannot do.

DAP will field at least five Malay candidates amongst those 25, the constitutional law expert cum university lecturer being one of those five. DAP can then choose three names from those five and submit them to HRH the Sultan of Selangor as the new coalition’s choice for Selangor Menteri Besar.

And with that, for the first time in history since June 1947 when the post of Menteri Besar was created, Selangor would have a DAP Menteri Besar.

PAS can probably retain Kelantan and if they are clever enough can win Terengganu as well. After all, in the last general election PAS won 50% of the parliament seats in Terengganu and needed just two more seats to form the Terengganu state government (and just one seat for a hung state assembly).

Umno Terengganu is so badly split that Ahmad Said, the deposed Menteri Besar, would get his supporters to give the state to the opposition just to teach Umno a lesson. It seems a very bitter and vengeful Ahmad Said is in discussion with Umno Team B on killing off Umno in Terengganu while Lim Kit Siang is in discussion with GAN (the Gerakan Anti-Najib led by Tun Dr Mahathir Mohammad) to make sure that Penang and Selangor not only remain opposition but would be owned by DAP.

So we would end up with two states under DAP and two states under PAS and the rest of Malaysia under Barisan Nasional.

As for the Federal Territory, all the seats except Labuan and Putrajaya are going to be swept by the opposition while in Kelantan and Terengganu the opposition can take more than 50% of the votes and in Penang and Selangor at least two-thirds of the votes.

With that scenario in mind it would be extremely stupid of DAP to not take advantage of the turmoil in Umno and PAS, and to a lesser degree in PKR, to add Selangor to the list of states it owns. I mean, Selangor is going to be practically served to DAP on a silver platter.

By: RPK.

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